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Pope Of Slope

ODDS OF SHOOTING AN EXCEPTIONAL TOURNAMENT SCORE

 

Handicap Ranges

0-5

6-12

13-21

22-30

GREATER THAN 30

Net Differential

odds

odds

odds

odds

odds

0

5:1

5:1

6:1

5:1

5:1

-1

10:1

10:1

10:1

8:1

7:1

-2

23:1

22:1

21:1

13:1

10:1

-3

57:1

51:1

43:1

23:1

15:1

-4

151:1

121:1

87:1

40:1

22:1

-5

379:1

276:1

174:1

72:1

35:1

-6

790:1

536:1

323:1

130:1

60:1

-7

2349:1

1200:1

552:1

229:1

101:1

-8

20111:1

4467:1

1138:1

382:1

185:1

-9

48219:1

27877:1

3577:1

695:1

359:1

-10

125000:1

84300:1

37000:1

1650:1

874:1

Probability of Two Best Scores Beating Handicap

The values in this table only include pairs of best negative differentials and determines how many strokes a golfer's handicap should be reduced to allow his best two differential likelihood to be an acceptable "rarity".

As an example, consider the golfer whose best two differentials of his last 20 scores were -6 and -8 and the player has a handicap of 15. This event would have a 1 in 7,249 chance. If a threshold of 1 in 258 was established as the limit of reasonability, this player should have his handicap lowered three strokes (three diagonal steps to the left in the following table).

Probability of Two Best Scores Beating Handicap Table

 

0

-1

-2

-3

-4

-5

-6

-7

-8

-9

-10

0

27

46

92

199

408

869

1808

2480

3871

9180

85779

-1

46

13

26

58

118

253

526

722

1126

2672

24967

-2

92

26

20

43

89

191

398

546

853

2023

18907

-3

199

58

43

59

121

258

537

737

1150

2728

25492

-4

408

118

89

121

200

427

888

1219

1903

4512

42163

-5

869

253

191

258

427

821

1708

2343

3657

8672

81030

-6

1808

526

398

537

888

1708

3385

4644

7249

17189

****

-7

2480

722

546

737

1219

2343

4644

6225

9716

23041

****

-8

3871

1126

853

1150

1903

3657

7249

9716

14912

35361

****

-9

9180

2672

2023

2728

4512

8672

17109

23041

35361

82951

****

-10

85779

24967

18907

25492

42163

81030

****

****

****

****

****

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